# Coconut Report 13

Utah, US

This week my partner and I decided to stay at Utah for two months more, and we kept encouraging each other that, one day, we will finally go out.

I finally cleaned up all my notes from the past 5 weeks! I am more familiar with Emacs after using it daily, but I haven’t got used to org-mode, which I am told is very powerful.

I read very little Rust code this week – more time was spent on the RiB plan – and there was a bunch of stuff that happened last month in the Rust & blockchain area. Very exciting!

## Progress

When I look at worst case possibilities, I would say that there are things that I think are quite improbable. And I hope they don’t happen, but that doesn’t mean they won’t happen. I mean, for example, in our insurance business, we could have the world’s, or the country’s, number one hurricane that it’s ever had, but that doesn’t preclude the fact that could have the biggest earthquake a month later. So we don’t prepare ourselves for a single problem. We prepare ourselves for problems that sometimes create their own momentum… There are things to trip other things, and we take a very much a worst case scenario into mind that probably is a considerably worse case than most people do….

I’m not recommending that people buy stocks today or tomorrow or next week or next month. I think it all depends on your circumstances, but you shouldn’t buy stocks unless you expect, in my view, you expect to hold them for a very extended period and you are prepared financially and psychologically to hold them…

The point is to think more like Graham and Buffett when assessing risk. Can you figure out the best, worst, and most likely outcome for an investment and a rough probability of each? Does the expected return on the likely outcome make it a good investment at the current price?

• On Being Careful How You Bet

I don’t know, and perhaps with a bias, I don’t believe anybody knows what the market is going to do tomorrow, next week, next month, next year. I know America is going to move forward over time, but I don’t know for sure, and we learned this on September 10th, 2001, and we learned it a few months ago in terms of the virus. Anything can happen in terms of markets, and you can bet on America, but you got to have to be careful about how you bet, simply because markets can do anything.